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Southeast Texas today
️ Overview – July 12, 2025, 10:32 AM (CT)
Highs: 91–93°F
Humidity: High – Heat index values near 102°F
Rain Chances: 70% this afternoon, tapering to 30% by evening
Storms: Scattered thunderstorms likely, especially 2–4 PM
⚡ Forecast MUCAPE (Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy)
Values: 2000–3000 J/kg
Implication: Moderately unstable atmosphere supports scattered thunderstorms. Some storms may produce gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.
📉 Lapse Rates
700–500 mb lapse rates: ~6.5–7.0°C/km
Implication: These moderately steep lapse rates, combined with surface heating and Gulf moisture, favor convective development.
🔍 HRRR Sounding Analysis (Houston Area)
Surface Dew Points: Mid-70s°F
CAPE: Elevated MUCAPE and SBCAPE
CIN: Weak to moderate, eroding by early afternoon
Wind Profile: Veering with height → directional shear
Implication: Conditions favor pulse-type storms with potential for localized downbursts.
🌀 Hodograph Analysis
Low-Level Shear: Weak to moderate
Effective Bulk Shear: 20–30 knots
Storm Mode: Multicell clusters, limited organization
Tornado Threat: Very low, but isolated strong wind gusts possible
🌊 Tropical Update
Tropics Status: No tropical cyclone activity expected in the next 7 days
Monitoring: 4 tropical waves (2 Atlantic, 2 Caribbean) – none pose a threat to Southeast Texas
📝 Summary
Expect hot and humid conditions across Southeast Texas today. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely, with brief heavy rain and gusty winds possible. While severe weather is unlikely, stay alert for localized flooding in low-lying areas. The tropics remain quiet for now.
Overview
Highs: 86–90°F
Humidity: High, with heat index values near 100°F
Rain Chances: Elevated, especially this afternoon and evening
Storms: Scattered thunderstorms likely, with potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding
🚨 Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM CDT — 2–4" of rain possible, with isolated totals up to 10".
⚡ Forecast MUCAPE (Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy)
Values: 2000–3000 J/kg across Southeast Texas
Implication: Moderately unstable atmosphere — supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and brief heavy downpours.
📉 Lapse Rates (700–500 mb)
Values: Estimated around 7.0–8.0°C/km.
Implication: Steep lapse rates enhance vertical motion and storm development, especially with surface heating and moisture.
🔍 HRRR Forecast Sounding Analysis (Houston Area)
Surface Dew Points: Mid-70s°F
CAPE: Elevated MUCAPE and SBCAPE
CIN: Weak to moderate, expected to erode by early afternoon
Wind Profile: Veering with height — indicative of directional shear
Implication: Conditions favor pulse-type thunderstorms with potential for localized downbursts and brief severe weather.